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Medicare Trustees Report 2016

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Use the controls below to CUSTOMIZE chart or CHANGE the data series

Hover mouse over dropdown controls for help. Remember, you can display a maximum of five data series at once.

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Chart Title: You can create a title for your chart. Use the text field to enter a title and click the button to the right of the text field.
Chart Size: By default, the chart is displayed at medium size. But you can use the dropdown control to change the size.
Color: By default charts are displayed with color data lines and fill. You can change this to grayscale if you want.
Report Year: By default, the chart displays actual and forecast spending from the latest trustees report. But you can change to look at the reports from previous years.

Data Range

Start Year: You can select any start year you want using the dropdown control in the table heading. At the top and bottom of the dropdown only years ending in “0” are shown. Select a start year to get close, then select the start year you want.
End Year: You can select any end year you want using the dropdown control in the table heading. At the top and bottom of the dropdown only years ending in “0” are shown. Select an end year to get close, then select the end year you want.

The chart shows the latest forecast for the cost, in percent of GDP, of the federal government’s Medicare program for seniors through 2090. It shows the cost of each of the three major parts of Medicare: the Part A Hospital Insurance program, the Part B Supplementary Medical Insurance program and the Part D Supplementary Medical Insurance drug benefit. See the Center for Medicare and Medicaid’s website for more details.

The numbers are obtained from the current 2016 Medicare Trustees Report using numbers from a spreadsheet “HI and SMI Incurred Expenditures as a Percentage of the Gross Domestic Product” available in Expanded and Suppplementary Tables.

If you’d like to create your own custom chart of spending data you should use the table above to make your selections.

  • Select the year range: Select the start year and the end year you want by selecting the years you want in the two year dropdown boxes.
  • Choose chart features: You can select the size of the chart, select color or black and white. You can also blow up the chart to fill the screen with the “full screen” tab control above the chart display.

Download Data

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Download Data File

 

Click button to download CSV file of dataset in chart.
 

Download Tab-delimited Data

Copy and Paste: To copy and paste data into spreadsheet for analysis, just copy the tab-delimited text in the textbox below (click cursor in text box, then press ctrl-A then press ctrl-C) and paste it into your spreadsheet.

View Data Series

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Below is a formatted version of the data displayed in the chart.

Medicare Trustees Report 2016
Fiscal Years 2015 to 2090
YearMedicare Part A
percent GDP
Medicare Part B
percent GDP
Medicare Part D
percent GDP
20151.54a1.56a0.51a
20161.54e1.57e0.52e
20171.54e1.58e0.53e
20181.54e1.6e0.58e
20191.56e1.65e0.62e
20201.59e1.7e0.65e
20211.62e1.75e0.67e
20221.65e1.82e0.69e
20231.69e1.89e0.71e
20241.73e1.95e0.74e
20251.75e2e0.75e
20261.82e2.1e0.78e
20271.86e2.16e0.8e
20281.89e2.21e0.82e
20291.92e2.26e0.84e
20301.94e2.3e0.86e
20311.97e2.34e0.88e
20322e2.38e0.89e
20332.03e2.41e0.91e
20342.05e2.43e0.92e
20352.08e2.46e0.94e
20362.1e2.48e0.95e
20372.12e2.49e0.96e
20382.14e2.5e0.97e
20392.15e2.5e0.98e
20402.16e2.5e0.98e
20412.17e2.49e0.99e
20422.18e2.49e0.99e
20432.19e2.48e1e
20442.19e2.48e1e
20452.2e2.47e1.01e
20462.2e2.47e1.02e
20472.2e2.47e1.03e
20482.2e2.46e1.03e
20492.2e2.46e1.04e
20502.2e2.45e1.05e
20512.19e2.45e1.06e
20522.19e2.44e1.06e
20532.18e2.44e1.07e
20542.18e2.44e1.08e
20552.18e2.44e1.09e
20562.17e2.44e1.1e
20572.17e2.44e1.11e
20582.17e2.44e1.12e
20592.17e2.44e1.13e
20602.17e2.44e1.14e
20612.17e2.44e1.15e
20622.17e2.44e1.16e
20632.17e2.44e1.17e
20642.18e2.44e1.18e
20652.18e2.45e1.19e
20662.19e2.45e1.2e
20672.19e2.45e1.21e
20682.2e2.45e1.22e
20692.2e2.45e1.23e
20702.21e2.45e1.24e
20712.22e2.45e1.25e
20722.22e2.45e1.26e
20732.23e2.45e1.28e
20742.23e2.45e1.29e
20752.23e2.44e1.3e
20762.24e2.44e1.3e
20772.24e2.43e1.31e
20782.24e2.43e1.32e
20792.24e2.42e1.32e
20802.24e2.41e1.33e
20812.23e2.41e1.34e
20822.23e2.4e1.34e
20832.23e2.4e1.35e
20842.23e2.39e1.36e
20852.22e2.39e1.37e
20862.22e2.38e1.38e
20872.22e2.38e1.39e
20882.22e2.38e1.4e
20892.22e2.38e1.41e
20902.21e2.38e1.42e

Legend:
a - actual reported
e - estimated by Trustees

Data source: Medicare Trustees Report

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Spending Data Sources

Spending data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of spending data sources here.

Federal spending data begins in 1792.

State and local spending data begins in 1890.

State and local spending data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Next Data Update

> State and Local Finances FY13

> data update schedule.

Data Sources for 2015_2090:

Sources for 2015:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

Sources for 2090:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook 2016

On July 12, 2016, the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2016, which projects federal spending and revenue out into the 2040s.  As before, the CBO study shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget, with federal spending exceeding 28 percent GDP by mid century while federal revenue stays below 20 percent GDP.

UsGovernmentspending.com has updated its chart of the CBO Long Term Budget Outlook here.  You can download the data and also view CBO Long Term Budget Outlooks going back to 1999.

Budget News

> archive

Spend links

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